by Baron Bodissey
A lot is written these days about declining birthrates in Western countries and Japan. The most frequent statistic cited is the number of live births per woman in a population: in order for the population to replace itself and remain stable, that number must be about 2.1.
Obviously there are many factors that could complicate the calculation of this “replacement number”. An increase in war and pestilence would tend to raise it, since more births would be necessary in order to make up for an increased death rate. In the opposite direction, improved medical care and decades of peace would tend to reduce the replacement number.
But what governs the increase or decrease in a country’s population in any given year is the number of births compared with the number of deaths.
This morning I stumbled upon a table at http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004395.html which shows the birth and death rates per 1,000 population for various countries, most of them European. To determine the rate of increase or decrease, I used the following method to calculate a ratio between the population at the beginning of the year and that at the end:(Start population of 1,000 + number of births – number of deaths) ÷ 1000, then subtract 1.
A positive ratio indicates that the population is increasing, and a negative one that it is decreasing.
For example, for Australia in 1975 the birth rate was 16.9 per 1,000, and the death rate was 7.9 per 1,000, yielding the following calculations:
1000 + 16.9 — 7.9 = 1009
1009 ÷ 1000 = 1.009
Subtract 1 and you have a ratio of .009, which is the rate of increase.
In contrast, consider Japan in 2007, with 9.2 and 9.4 respectively:
1000 + 9.2 — 9.4 = 999.8
999.8/1000 = .9998
Subtract 1 and you have a ratio of -.0002, which is a slight decrease in population.
Using these methods I built a trend for each country. This is example is for Australia:
Year Births Deaths Ratio
1975 16.9 7.9 0.0090
1980 15.3 7.4 0.0079
1985 15.7 7.5 0.0082
1990 15.4 7.0 0.0084
2005 12.3 7.4 0.0049
2006 12.1 7.5 0.0046
2007 12.0 7.6 0.0044
The table of ratios for fifteen countries is below (Denmark, Sweden, and other countries of interest were not in the Infoplease table, unfortunately):
Country 1975 1980 1985 1990 2005 2006 2007
Australia .0090 .0079 .0082 .0084 .0049 .0046 .004
Austria -.0003 -.0002 -.0003 .0010 -.0009 -.0011 -.0011
Belgium .0000 .0011 .0003 .0020 .0003 .0001 .0000
France .0035 .0046 .0038 .0042 .0031 .0029 .0027
Germany -.0024 -.0016 -.0019 .0002 -.0023 -.0023 -.0025
Greece .0068 .0063 .0023 .0009 -.0005 -.0005 -.0007
Ireland .0109 .0122 .0082 .0060 .0067 .0067 .0066
Israel .0211 .0174 .0169 .0160 .0120 .0118 .0115
Italy .0049 .0015 .0006 .0004 -.0014 -.0017 -.0020
Japan .0108 .0075 .0057 .0032 .0005 .0002 -.0002
Netherl. .0047 .0047 .0038 .0047 .0024 .0022 .0020
Norway .0042 .0024 .0016 .0036 .0022 .0021 .0019
Switzerl. .0036 .0021 .0024 .0030 .0013 .0012 .0012
UK .0006 .0017 .0015 .0027 .0006 .0006 .0006
USA .0051 .0073 .0070 .0081 .0059 .0058 .0059
http://globalpolitician.com/articledes.asp?ID=3341&cid=3&sid=9