http://wvwnews.net/story.php?id=3192
http://wvwnews.net/story.php?id=2893
By Steve Sailer
Predicting the winners of Presidential primary campaigns is a mug’s game. You can do detailed analyses of name awareness, issues, demographics, and personalities. But eventually momentum or just plain luck take over and sweep one candidate to victory for no particular reason.
For example, John McCain appears to have a lock on the Republican nomination due to flukish good fortune in narrowly winning the winner-take-all states. Political scientist John Sides calculates that if the GOP contests awarded delegates proportionally, as the Democrats tend to do, McCain would have only a seven-delegate lead over Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee within striking distance, and Ron Paul having a realistic shot at being a key powerbroker at the Convention.
Other times, however, momentum fails to kick in. Hillary Clinton, for example, assumed she would win the Democratic nomination because (follow me closely here) the first voters would vote for her because they assumed that everybody else after them would vote for her. And then the subsequent voters would assume that they should vote for her because the first voters voted for her. Momentum (or, more precisely, what physicists call inertia) would conquer all.
It was as http://wvwnews.net/story.php?id=3163 as HillaryCare!In 2008, though, momentum has been relatively slow to take hold, allowing more fundamental forces time to work.
This winter’s Democratic primaries are offering a foretaste of what American Presidential elections will increasingly be like in the future. Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times:
“The bitterness of the fight for the Democratic nomination is, on the face of it, bizarre… Why, then, is there so much venom out there? …Most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody.” [Hate Springs Eternal February 11, 2008
Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center explained in the New York Times blog:
“In the Democratic primaries, race, class, gender, age and party identification continued to be the most important factor in determining a voter’s support.” [Patterns of Distinction, February 7, 2008
In other words, the Democrats are separated not by principle, but by identity—over whose people will get to run the upcoming bigger government.
This is of course what we see today in Third World countries such as http://wvwnews.net/story.php?id=2920 tribe for control of the machinery of the state.
As it happens, new Pew Research Center study (for the full PDF of U.S. Population Projections 2005-2050, click here) suggests that, through government policy, America is well on its way to importing a Third World majority population of its own. Assuming a slightly lower immigration rate than we’ve seen over the last 20 years, the Hispanic population, according to Pew, will triple in the 45 years from 2005 until 2050.
http://vdare.com/sailer/080217_primaries.htm