…of the general election
What do you call a candidate who wins http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=4489 vote and 40 percent of the white vote in a tight Democratic primary race? A general election loser.
Apply those percentages to the general election, and the candidate will lose. In 2004, President Bush won 43 percent of the Hispanic vote, 58 percent of the white vote and 11 percent of the African-American vote. That means that John Kerry did better among Hispanics than Barack Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; better among whites than Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; and almost as well among African-Americans. Obama’s coalition is Kerry’s, but http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=4476.
In a general election, candidates must appeal to the broadest base of support in order to win. Relying on small coteries of like-raced voters simply will not do it. And the simple fact is that Barack Obama will gain the Democratic nomination by winning intellectual centers, black voters and just enough http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=4477.
McCain will do far better among whites than Hillary did. Obama cut especially into Clinton’s main base of support — whites — by exploiting her gender, winning 40 percent of white males in Indiana and 45 percent of white males in North Carolina. McCain is far more appealing to http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=4105 than Clinton. Hillary is perceived as a shrew — most men find her unpalatable. If Obama could not win more than 45 percent of white men in North Carolina running against Clinton, how can he hope to beat that percentage against McCain?
And then there’s the Hispanic vote. For a Democrat, Obama is shockingly unpopular among Hispanics — he won just 32 percent of California’s Hispanic vote in the Democratic primary. McCain, by contrast, is incredibly popular among Hispanics — he routinely wins 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in his Arizona Senate contests. Such percentages will not translate directly to the general election, of course — there are more registered Hispanic Democrats than Hispanic Republicans. But those percentages bode ill for Obama, who will struggle to overcome racial barriers, as well as an immigration-friendly Republican like McCain, who also shares many family values with http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=4465.
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