You. Will. http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=4312. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.
by Jan Lundberg
Culture Change Letter #189, June 20, 2008
The http://wvwnews.net/story.php?id=4965.
You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food. Need this be spelled out any more plainly? It is time to consider that the stage has been set for petroleum-induced famine.
We have “innocently” accommodated rising population with greater and greater food production via technology and the profit motive. But now we have run out of room to grow, as biotechnology, for example, has severe limitations — major ones being http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=1888 dependence and topsoil loss.
We are headed for massive shortages of food and other essentials, mainly brought about by the depletion of geological fossil reserves of cheap energy and water. The situation is demonstrated regularly with easy arithmetic based on statistical indicators from the United Nations, Worldwatch Institute, World Resources Institute, Earth Policy Institute, and numerous governments. Usually the full http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=659 of the message is offset by predictions of huge rises in future human population growth that are simple extrapolations of historical trends.No one can say with certainty that the worst effects of today’s crisis will occur tomorrow or by any particular date. But it is irrational to assume there will only be gradual tightening of supplies until some solutions miraculously come to our aid. One ought to at least admit that one year ago few people thought we’d be going in the direction we’re going in, this fast, today.
Three days is our average food supply around the modernized world, i.e., for cities and their supermarkets. Long-term food stocks have plummeted: “Cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years,” according to Worldwatch institute in its most recent Vital Signs. This is exacerbated by increasingly weirder weather, compounded by the oil price/supply pressure on food. What can interfere with the three-day situation are truckers on strike (as in Europe), extended/repeated power outages, and the inability of the work force to commute to work.
I asked Chris Flavin, Worldwatch Institute president, about the escalating crisis that I assumed he was quite worried about. He told me on Wednesday,
“A lot will depend on the crop year and the weather. There is slack in the food supply system from meat consumption, for example. One steak’s energy requirement is the same as one gallon of ethanol. I see the glass half full and don’t have an apocalyptic view. We’re seeing fuel economy improvements and other self-correcting mechanisms. There’s $100 billion in renewable energy investment this year. We needed this crisis to start changing toward conservation. The pendulum is swinging again, as it did in the 1970s. We’re not going off the end of the cliff on peak oil. Production declines will be gradual.” I sent him my thoughts on the latter, with my thanks. I sure was surprised that he wasn’t half as worried as I am. Maybe he does not see as much of a problem the fact that the nation’s infrastructure is petroleum-based. He probably would not agree with me that the Earth is being murdered along with us human beings.
Zap! A global-warming heat wave kills many thousands in a U.S. city. Other cities take note, realizing their own cities are “like the one that got zapped last weekend.” Between the water supply problems, energy overload for air conditioning, rising prices for food, water and gasoline, people try to escape the urban heat island effect. Too many consumers stocking up and trying to split town exacerbated the tragedy.
When cities run out of food, and people want to leave en masse, they will get stuck in traffic jams the way fleeing (potential) victims of Hurricane Rita did in 2005. Will survivors be the ones who had the fullest gas tanks? Will these survivors also require guns to obtain food outside the city, whether by hunting or sticking up some hapless or well-armed locals?
Culture Change’s reports do not intend to add to hysteria. Indeed, if only there were no reason to be alarmed. But looking at our collective situation, it is difficult to see how wrenching shortages are avoidable. The consequence of reactions to these shortages will not be pretty. Without facing this, and taking action to prevent it, our Ship of Fools is on a course to hit the rocks.
Whether you are relatively “set” — with local food supply, not just money — or you are living from paycheck to paycheck and thus depend on the trucks coming into the supermarket without a hitch, you will not be immune to some interruption or limitation on the food you have probably taken for granted. As petroleum is in fast-dwindling supply and is relied upon for mass producing our food, shipping it (on average 1,500 miles for North Americans), packaging it and preparing it, we are up against a petroleum-induced famine of our own making. What evil-doer will we blame instead of ourselves?
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