McCain does not seem to have a clear tack that could carry him to victory
by Timothy P. Carney
Human Events
“We haven’t seen a poll out of South Carolina in more than three weeks, and there’s a chance commercial pilot Bob Conley (D) could pull ahead of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R). Conley performed strongly in a recent debate, hitting Graham and Washington on the bailout. Graham, tied more closely than any lawmaker to McCain, could take a bigger hit than most from McCain’s struggles….”
Buchanan.org Ed Note: Send fellow Buchanan Brigader and Ron Paul supporter http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=5705 to Capitol Hill and say adios to Open-Border Neocon Lindsay Graham! Go to Bob’s website and send him a contribution today!
Outlook
An Electoral College landslide is in the offing, paired with Democratic tsunamis in congressional races. Riding the wave triggered by the economic collapse, Sen. Barack Obama’s adept campaign, and Sen. John McCain’s hapless candidacy, Democrats will come close to 60 seats in the Senate, and perhaps cross that threshold. In the House, Republicans are retrenching, trying to prevent Democratic gains of 20 or more.Republicans desperately need some sort of catalyst to turn things around. The GOP, however, has ceded economic and fiscal issues to the Democrats by embracing the bailout.
Presidential
Overview: The good news for McCain is this: The election is still 20 days away. The bad news is that none of the tacks he’s likely to take will carry him to victory.
Obama’s Electoral College lead right now is huge, as almost all of the swing states have swung into his category. Obama has significant poll leads in Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Virginia, and has pulled away in New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In previously strong McCain states such as Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina, the race is now very tight.
While “it’s over” has become the resigned refrain of many Republicans, the race certainly is not over. Three weeks is a long time, and anything can happen.
Still, McCain does not seem to have a clear tack that could carry him to victory. Assailing Obama’s character (by playing up his alliance with unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers) comes too late. Americans have already seen Obama in the debates and the convention, and he came across as serious and trustworthy. McCain, by playing nice until the fall, missed his chance to define Obama.
Can McCain make this a race about national security? It’s hard to imagine the nation’s attention diverting from the economic mess right now, but again, we have nearly three weeks until Election Day. An al Qaeda terrorist attack timed for the election, unfortunately, is not unthinkable. That could be what it takes for McCain to win.
The final debate tonight is not McCain’s last chance to change the race, but it’s his best chance. Given McCain’s charisma shortcomings, it may take a major Obama stumble to turn the race around.
Economic
Bailouts: As the Bush Administration wades even deeper into an ocean of state control over the finance industry, many Republicans who backed the bailout are beginning to show buyer’s remorse.
Specifically, backing the $700 bailout, rather than leading a populist crusade against corporate cronyism and big government, increasingly looks like a missed opportunity for McCain. With both presidential candidates taking the side of the Bush Administration and the Democratic Congress, the bailout has been taken off the table in the presidential contest. On all remaining economic battlefronts, Obama is far outperforming McCain.
Arguing over what form this newly expanded socialism will take is not a winning fight for any Republican. Fighting over economic details is a loser specifically for McCain. Had he taken the fight to a higher level by resisting Washington’s rush to “do something,” McCain might have been able to turn the economy into a winning issue instead of the clear loser it is today.
With the “stabilization” details from the administration constantly shifting, some lawmakers and lobbyists are racing to figure out the new rules of the game, but increasingly, this looks like a hopeless task. Either Obama or McCain will enter the White House with full discretion to set whatever new rules they want. This causes trepidation among some Beltway conservatives.
Treasury Department official Neel Kashkari, the 35-year-old Wharton MBA running the bailout operation, has a reputation among Capitol Hill staff as a “greenie,” possessing the same strong of environmentalist leanings as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Both Paulson and Kashkari could find a job in an Obama administration.
The clearest effect of Washington’s vastly expanded role in our economy: an acceleration of the lobbying boom, and a dramatic increase in lobbyists’ clout. Since 2001, spending on lobbying has grown at a rate of $200 million per year, with 800 new lobbyists every year. Expect a serious spike in 2009.
http://buchanan.org/blog/2008/10/republican-disaster-at-hand/