This bill will either passor fail as a direct result of the actions of a handful of Senators.
The Senate voted this evening by a 60-39 majority to commence debate on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s billthat would radically expand government control over private health caredecisions. The bill is over 2000 pages long, costs an estimated $2.5trillion over the first ten years of implementation and carries a halftrillion dollars in new taxes. Many Americans have to be thinking rightnow — they have heard from their dissenting constituents at Town Hallmeetings and have seen the poll numbers for Obama’s health care billdropping like a rock so why would they keep moving this bill forward?
This debate will center around many issues including huge taxes increases, economy-killing employer mandates and:
1. Abortion: Congressman Bart Stupak (D-MI) offeredan amendment to the House bill to ban all federal funds flowing intothe health care system from funding abortion. Senator Reid put languagein the bill that allows some funds to go to abortion servicesby using an accounting gimmick. This issue could take the bill down,because the House approach is far different from the Senate approach.If this bill becomes a referendum on abortion policy, it may fail.
2. Cost: Senator Reid has promoted his bill ascosting the federal government $849 billion and as a budget cuttingbill. Conservatives in the Senate have pointed out that the costs aremore accurately $2.5 trillion over the first 10 years of implementationbecause the benefits are not even scheduled to be paid out until 2014.There is a huge disparity between the two sides as to the cost of the bill and if it gets bigger and bigger on the Senate floor, then it may suffer a legislative implosion.
3. The Public Plan: Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) has pledged to support a filibuster of any bill containing the public option.Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) will only accept a public option with atrigger. Other Senators have expressed reservations about differentpermutations of the public option. A bill with a too strong publicoption may not have the support to pass the Senate.
4. Wild Card: As with all these debates, there maybe an issue that comes out of the blue and becomes central to the bill.There were debates over “death panels” during initial stages of thedebates and controversies over coverage for illegal immigrants. Someother issue may be offered as an amendment or may be buried in the 2000pages of the bill that may become the next controversy to preventpassage.
The week after Thanksgiving, the Senate will start the process ofconsidering and voting on amendments to the bill. This process may goin one of two directions. It is possible that Reid uses the amendmentprocess to buy just enough votes to pass the bill through targetedspecial interest amendments. Expect Connecticut, Nebraska, Arkansas,and, yet again, Louisiana to receive special treatment in the amendmentprocess. If Senator Reid is able to buy support during this process,the bill will pass and the President will sign Obamacare before hisState of the Union.
Scenario two kicks in if opponents of the bill play hardball. Ifopposing Senators offer non-germane amendments, like the legislation torestore the 2nd Amendment in the District of Columbia or a resolutionof disapproval for Attorney General Eric Holder’s decision to try Kahlid Sheik Mohammed in federal courts,then the Senate would be mixing some volatile issues into the healthcare mix. Regardless the course of action, this bill will either passor fail as a direct result of the actions of a handful of Senators.
Read more about the five major flaws of Majority Leader Harry Reid’s health care bill here and at FixHealthCarePolicy.org.