Statistical variables cast doubt.
The estimated time when whites will no longer make up the majorityof Americans has been pushed back eight years — to 2050 — because therecession and stricter immigration policies have slowed the flow of foreigners into the U.S.
Census Bureau figuresreleased Wednesday update last year’s prediction that white childrenwould become a minority in 2023 and the overall white population wouldfollow in 2042. The earlier estimate did not take into account a dropin the number of people moving into the U.S. because of the economic crisis and the immigration policies imposed after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.
The2050 estimate is one of four projections released that is based onrates for births and deaths and a scenario in which immigrationcontinues its more recent, slower pace of adding nearly 1 million newforeigners each year. Demographers said that scenario offers the bestlook for now at the future demographic makeup based on currentconditions, rather than other models which assume higher rates ofimmigration.
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The actual shift in demographics will be influenced by a host offactors that can’t be accurately forecast — the pace of the economicrecovery, cultural changes, natural or manmade disasters, as well as anoverhaul of immigration law, which may be debated in Congress as early as next year.
As a result, the Census Bureau said the projections should be used mostly as a guide.